Part I- Natural Landscape Changes
The changing rains
Pitter Patter Pitter Patter. Source: Tumblr
Let's get down to the basics of this drying; what's really changing? Frequently we're told of a wetter world where large scale storms inundate our cities and make us leave our houses perpetually carrying an umbrella. Well the American Southwest misses out on this problem. Check it out; the Southwest has lost rainfall and will continue to lose rainfall in the coming decade!
The rate of rainfall changes since 1901. The Southwest has seen diminishing rainfall! Source: EPA (2014)
Predicted changes in rainfall based on NOAA climate models. The Southwest will lose more rainfall! Source: Southwest Climate Change Network (2008)
The Southwest is not only losing rainfall; but the way it gets its water is also changing! Summarized by the Union of Concerned Scientists warmer temperatures mean less snowfall. And warmer temperatures mean earlier snowmelts, sometimes up to 60 days early! In addition, when the summer and spring rains arrive they come in heavy downpours and the parched land struggles to retain the moisture! The Southwest system is losing water from precipitation and what it does get it struggles to keep.
However, who's to say this change is not natural, fluxual and will return to its earlier state? Why are we so concerned about all this weather? We know that there is something of a North American Monsoon that brings changing precipitation to the American Southwest (Climate Prediction Center 2004). El Nino's also bring changes to the Southwest. Gutzler and Preston (1997) found that during El Nino's the amount of snowfall would be inversely related to summer rainfall. Perhaps the lower summer rains are caused by higher snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains. Notaro and Zarrin (2011) found similar results when modelling the Rocky Mountain snowpack. So with these large scale climatic systems affected the Southwest should we be worried about the future rain?
Yes we should! While the monsoons and El Ninos have undoubtedly affected the region in the past 100 years and will do so again in the next, the signs are pointing to a dryer Southwest. The Southwest has lost both winter and summer precipitation. As Notaro et al. (2010) highlight, the rainfall feeds the vegetative system in the Southwest and without it the entire region will be thrown out of balance forcing humans and animals alike to adapt to a dramatically changing landscape.
Rainfall is at the core of the American Southwest like most of our homes so I'll leave you here to grab a cup of tea, listen to the songs of nature and think about that new rain smell!
Interesting!! Will you be exploring what can be done to solve or adapt to this problem if it is naturally induced?
ReplyDeleteHey Sarah! Yes I'm starting off going over the physical changes to the landscape and then I'll begin to go into our responses to and implications for these changes!
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