Yes I know guac costs extra

PART II- AGRICULTURE

The plants are thirsty

How heavenly! Source: Mouthy Mag

For me nothing is a better snack that chips, salsa and most importantly guacamole! But if your produce is coming from the USA chances are you're eating Californian avocados, tomatoes, limes, onions, etc... The Californian agriculture industry is roughly around $45 BILLION (Choy and McGhee 2014). That's almost a quarter of America's produce production (San Jose Mercury News 29/03/14). How can one state grow that much??? For those non-Americans California is a massive state at almost 500,000 square kilometers! Look below for a map comparison with the UK:

Such a tiny island. Outline of the UK against Cali. Source: Travelers' Digest

California needs a lot of water to maintain our Pico de Gallo obsession! But with less water available farmers have had to tap further and further into the ground to get it. Groundwater depletion monitoring over such a large area is hard to do! Famiglietti et al. (2011), focusing on satellite data from 2003-2010, found that the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins lost 30.9 cubic kilometers of water and the Central Valley lost 20.3 cubic kilometers of groundwater. It was clear that this rate of depletion was unsustainable when the paper was published but mother nature has a way of making things even messier for the Southwest. California has been in a drought-like state for the past 3 years!

"'Cause I'm burning up, burning up for you baby." Systematic Cali drought. Source: Telegraph 28/10/14

To save the agricultural industry more groundwater is used during drought, but after 3 years the state is drying quickly! Californians rely 60% on groundwater during drought years, compared to just 29% in a normal year (Choy and McGhee 2014). So how do farmer's do it? Are the costs of well drilling less than potential loses? Let's focus in on the Central Valley. Farmers now have to dig 1000+ feet below at a cost of over $300,000 per well to reach the aquifers (Dimik 2014). That's quite a price tag yet despite this farmers have been paying up! But the Central Valley is still expected to lose $1.7 BILLION from this drought (Choy and McGhee 2014). It appears that farmers will lose out either way!

The problem is multiplied by a lack of governmental structure to prevent groundwater loses! People are free to use the water under their land in California and there's no legislation against this. Look at the increases in well permits for the Central Valley in recent years:

Hopefully all the Jacks and Jills won't fall in. California well water permits. Source: San Jose Mercury News 29/03/14

Some legislation has been proposed to limit the amount of wells and protect the groundwater resources but its unlikely to come into effect (or voted on) until the 2020s (Washington Post 06/08/14)! Yet even with regulation, the environment may not benefit more than the farmers lose out (Grantham et al. 2013). The farming industry is constantly scrutinized for using too much water or not using enough to keep the industry afloat.

It's clear the California we love is dependent on its agricultural economy. Yet it's also clear the rate of groundwater depletion to sustain this economy is unreasonable and furthers the state's water insecurity. While we love avocados and apples and wine if groundwater depletion continues in this way the entire agricultural industry could collapse dramatically changing Californian, American and global society. We need to work towards a more sustainable water usage system in the Southwest as less and less water is expected to arrive.

Will we have a Groasis?

Part I- NATURAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES

The Changing Sands

So thirsty. Source: Giphy

This week concludes our 'Natural Landscape Changes'. We've witnessed how the Southwest is losing precipitation and partly as a result, is losing river flows! What this creates is a more arid climate prone to desertification!

Look here at Las Vegas' urban growth. As it expands the reservoir loses more and more water. While the city grows, Lake Mead shrinks. Barnett and Pierce (2008) make startling claims like there's a 50% chance Lake Mead's live storage will disappear by 2021. While the flaws of their argument, such as the underlying hydrological assumptions they make, are debated by Barsugli et al. (2009) and others no one debates that the lake is shrinking. It has become more a matter of when and how quickly.

Viva Las Vegas? Las Vegas Growth. Source: Imgur

This desertification or aridification or as I call it 'thirstification' is becoming more widespread in American thought. While Earth scientists have been aware of what's happening for decades the news outlets have picked up on it. Its even found its way into mainstream pop culture. Check out this Jimmy Kimmel Live sketch. While humorous, this highlights how far reaching public awareness is to the recent California droughts. We have a Nashville singer on a Los Angeles show being broadcast during the 'late night' time slot to the East Coast about California's problems. 

This is not to say it is all doom and gloom for the Southwest. Many ecosystems are adapted to desert like conditions and inevitably will perform much better than others in the future like the Sonoran Desert in southern Arizona and New Mexico. The concern lies more with how will the more seasonal and temperate ecosystems adapt but also how will we as humans adapt?

As we go into the future we'll tackle these questions starting with our next section 'Agriculture'.

Let it flow; let it flow. Can't hold it back anymore!

PART I- NATURAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES

The changing flows

Can't hold me back... or can we? Source: Gif Bay

Precipitation isn't the only changing part of the hydrosphere in the Southwest! The rivers have changed too! Let's focus in on the mighty Colorado River!

The Colorado River and Tributaries. Source: Wikipedia

The Colorado quick facts:

• It is a major source of water for the dry dry American and Mexican Southwest
• The river services over 30 million people! Zielinski (2010)
• 70% of the river feeds 3.5 million hectares of farmland. Zielinski (2010)
• The river's average flow of 15 million hectare feet is variable between 6-20 million hectare feet. MIT
• The river is dammed to create large reservoirs and generate over 4,000 megawatts of power. MIT
• The river's flow is decreasing in the basin. USGS (2004)
• The Colorado River no longer regularly reaches the sea... WHAT?

Check out this quick video to see the beauty and diversity of this landscape but also the problems facing the river

If you're one of those TL;DR types (or in this case watch): The river is beautiful; humans are over using it!

So what does this mean? Where is the river going? 75% of the river's flow comes from Rocky Mountain snow melt. Yet with predicted temperature increases the river could lose as much as 20% of its flow (MIT). The decreased flow/increasing usage is already evident. The large reservoirs are steadily decreasing and may never reach original levels again (Zielinski 2010). With projected population growth in the Southwest it is clear the Colorado like so many other water sources in the region will be put under more stress. The changes in the Southwest hydrosphere serve as the basis for many other environmental changes in its diverse landscape! 

Rain rain go away but please come back to L.A.

Part I- Natural Landscape Changes

The changing rains

Pitter Patter Pitter Patter. Source: Tumblr

Let's get down to the basics of this drying; what's really changing? Frequently we're told of a wetter world where large scale storms inundate our cities and make us leave our houses perpetually carrying an umbrella. Well the American Southwest misses out on this problem. Check it out; the Southwest has lost rainfall and will continue to lose rainfall in the coming decade!

The rate of rainfall changes since 1901. The Southwest has seen diminishing rainfall! Source: EPA (2014)

Predicted changes in rainfall based on NOAA climate models. The Southwest will lose more rainfall! Source: Southwest Climate Change Network (2008)

The Southwest is not only losing rainfall; but the way it gets its water is also changing! Summarized by the Union of Concerned Scientists warmer temperatures mean less snowfall. And warmer temperatures mean earlier snowmelts, sometimes up to 60 days early! In addition, when the summer and spring rains arrive they come in heavy downpours and the parched land struggles to retain the moisture! The Southwest system is losing water from precipitation and what it does get it struggles to keep.

However, who's to say this change is not natural, fluxual and will return to its earlier state? Why are we so concerned about all this weather? We know that there is something of a North American Monsoon that brings changing precipitation to the American Southwest (Climate Prediction Center 2004). El Nino's also bring changes to the Southwest. Gutzler and Preston (1997) found that during El Nino's the amount of snowfall would be inversely related to summer rainfall. Perhaps the lower summer rains are caused by higher snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains. Notaro and Zarrin (2011) found similar results when modelling the Rocky Mountain snowpack. So with these large scale climatic systems affected the Southwest should we be worried about the future rain?

Yes we should! While the monsoons and El Ninos have undoubtedly affected the region in the past 100 years and will do so again in the next, the signs are pointing to a dryer Southwest. The Southwest has lost both winter and summer precipitation. As Notaro et al. (2010) highlight, the rainfall feeds the vegetative system in the Southwest and without it the entire region will be thrown out of balance forcing humans and animals alike to adapt to a dramatically changing landscape. 

Rainfall is at the core of the American Southwest like most of our homes so I'll leave you here to grab a cup of tea, listen to the songs of nature and think about that new rain smell!

Getting Thirsty?

Hello and welcome to "From One Ex-Stream to Another"

My name is Charles Axelsson and I'm a 3rd year in my BSc Geography. Over the next four months (and maybe beyond) I'll be posting here about the consequences of drying climates drawing mostly on the American Southwest. 

The American Southwest with subregions. Source: Wikipedia

Excluding Texas, the American Southwest is home to some 50 million people alone (EPA 2013) with 90% of the population living in urban areas including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Denver (Global Change). The region is extremely important not only economically but also culturally. From the cinematic landscapes of Southern California to the mountain recreation of Colorado to the agricultural production of New Mexico the American Southwest is a big player in the United States as well as the world!

People aren't the only creatures home to the region! The mighty Colorado River roars through the region while wildlife thrives in the National Parks like Yosemite, Yellow Stone and Grand Canyon. The region captures many ecosystems filled with unique wildlife from redwood trees to cacti and from grizzly bears to rattlesnakes. The region also grows half of American high-wealth crops such as the always beloved avocado (Global Change).

My love of avocados. Source: Raw Girl

So what? Why care about this region? Can't they just go on living in their happy sunny way under the palm trees? NO! The American Southwest is changing! It's drying! The land is thirsty! In the past century the average temperature rose 1.5 degrees F with an expected 8 degrees rise coming this century (EPA 2013). With all this heat the desert is getting warmer and less snow is falling and melting into the lakes and rivers that fuel this climatic anti-humidity oasis. On top of this springtime rainfall is expected to decreases leaving those summers hotter and dryer (EPA 2013). 

As we go on our journey through the American Southwest we will explore what this drying means for the environment from agriculture production, wildfires, urban development, species responses, erosion, and beyond! So grab a cocktail and pull up to the poolside, take a hot cocoa while overlooking the ski slopes or order a drink in a Western bar and get ready to feel the heat!