I See Fire

PART V- DISASTER

How do we let it burn?

Acres to burn. Source: Tumblr

Droughts, changing climates, wildfires? What do these all have in common? I'll outline how the climate induced droughts are increasing the risk of wildfires!

Warmer temperatures and less precipitation can dramatically increase the chance of  forest fires. Western American forests are more prone to fires roughly a month after snowmelts (National Wildlife Foundation). With earlier snowmelts in the Southwest, the longer fire season becomes. Drought also reduces the moisture of forests leaving them more readily combustible (The Nature Conservancy). In addition, warmer temperatures can increase thunderstorm severity and bring more frequent lightening creating more fires (National Wildlife Foundation). Warmer temperatures are also conductive for spreading invasive insects in forests which in turn weaken the trees rendering them more readily combustible (National Wildlife Foundation). It's clear that as temperatures get warmer and drought increases in the Southwest, the forests will be more prone to burning whether or not they actually do. The threat is increasing in one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S.

Perhaps drought and fire is something unique to the Southwest? Well I want to draw you're attention to an Eastern Canadian study. Carcaillet et al (2001) reconstructed fire regimes from lake cores and conclude that the drying of the climate 2-3000 Y.B.P. allowed for more drought and increased fires. Forests on different sides of continents experience similar drought and fire structuring so the Southwest is not an anomaly. 

How do we measure this drought/fire relationship? The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI or Palmer Drought Index) is a long-term meterological moisture index (NOAA 2013). As such the PDSI is an indicator of wildfire risk as long-term aridification or drought is more indicative of fire threat than one day without rain (Patterson 2013). However, PDSI is not a perfect indicator. It is not always able to predict the extent of area that burns in a fire (Gedalof et al. 2005). In addition, fires don't just happen; there needs to be a cause so drought does not necessarily mean a fire is imminent. Overall, the PDSI is a good indicator of the fire season severity, despite its shortcomings, and can be useful in predicting this up to a year before the season (Gershunov et al. 2003). While PDSI may not be perfect, it is a good starting place for fire management and can help begin to tackle the increased risk of fires in a drying climate. Next time we'll dive into the media frenzy of recorded fires in the Southwest but for now check out the most recent PDSI:

Some clear regional differences in moisture. U.S. PDSI Source: NOAA 2014

(R)ice Bucket Challenge

PART V- DISASTER

Setting the Stage

She didn't think this through. Source: Tumblr

Hello and welcome to our next section: DISASTERS! Disasters, mainly fires, are a visible sign of a drying climate and bring a lot of media attention.

To recap, we know the Southwest is in drought and we know that the drought is going to continue. Look at the most recent drought index for California:

It's getting dry in here. Source: U.S. Drought Portal

The next posts will not be too upbeat (there's no good way to talk about fire destruction) so I want to quickly point out how ingrained the drought has come in Californian culture. This summer youtube, facebook, instagram, you name it was taken by storm for the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge. I'm not here to talk about the cause but rather the challenge itself: you dump a bucket of ice water on your head. 

As it swept across the nation, in California it wasn't always popular. The Long Beach Post (18/08/14) estimated that the ice bucket challenge had wasted "19,000 homes' daily water usage". In California, people started ice bucket shaming those that wasted too much water in attempting the challenge (LA Times 20/08/14). A satirical article even suggested than fines were being imposed against Californian challenge participants because it violated the Phase 2 water saving program (Daily Currant 15/08/14). While untrue, it raises the question of if fines should have been imposed on the water wasters. As the rest of the country was dumping buckets of water on their heads, California recognized the impracticality of this in their state.

While some still used ice water, others, like "Wrecking Ball" singer Miley, found alternatives with the rice bucket challenge. Discussing drought is no longer only for specialists in the Southwest anymore, it is debated by all residents! So hopefully this cooled you down before we begin to handle the flames of wildfires!

Does the Castle Need a Moat?

PART IV- RECREATION

Splash Mountain

When you wish upon a star. Source: Tumblr

What happens to amusement parks during droughts? They use up a lot of water for attractions, landscaping and visitor amenities (every toilet flush uses water!). Let's focus on Disneyland Resorts in Anaheim, California as it was the world's second largest, and the Southwest's largest, amusement park by attendance in 2012 with nearly 16 million visitors (Themed Entertainment Association 2013). 

Disneyland is located here outside Los Angeles in Orange County:

Get on the freeway. Disney's location in SoCal. Source: Travelocity

When calls to use less water are made, they usually exclude Disneyland. And why's this? Because it is a big employer and big business that brings in tourists to Southern California (and their money). Keeping these parks open are so important it's even suggested that Federal water could be taken away from agriculture for Disneyland if the state regulation fails (The Sacramento Bee 7/10/14). In fact as a business Disneyland can get around potential water saving ordinances like the anti-pool draining measures (Orange County Register 9/09/14). In times of drought Disneyland has a history of business as usual. In the drought of the late 1980's, the park maintained operations despite water stress (LA Times 5/05/90). So is Disney a water drinking monster with no concern for droughts and a drying climate?

Disneyland has taken some steps to improve their water usage. Here are some of the measures outlined on their Disneyland Public Affairs website:

• Storing drained water through the Orange County Water District Groundwater Replenishment System to recycle when filling Disney water attractions.
• Using low-flux toilets to reduce water usage.
• Building with porous asphalt to allow water to enter the groundwater system.
• Below ground irrigation to reduce evaporation rates.
• Using drought-tolerant plants for landscaping.

Disneyland isn't ignorant to the challenges facing Southwest 'thirstification' but is what they're doing enough. If the climate is going to get drier is the park sustainable to run with all the water is needs? It appears as if the government has taken the side of the park to keep business and maintain tourism and recreation. Yet by shutting down the park or closing water-consuming attractions the park could be more environmentally friendly. What do you think? Should the park adopts a policy of continued perseverance or measures of aquatic austerity? Should Disneyland be required to publish its total annual (tourist bathrooms included!) water usage for public access?

Will They Wake Up Like This?

PART IV- RECREATION

Road Trip to the Canyons

Yo yo Yosemite! Source: Tumblr

The beauty of the American National Parks. I bet images of bears, geysers, canyons, salmon, etc all spring into your mind. Who doesn't love a good adventure through the final frontiers! But most of us no longer live in these 'wilds'; we pay our way to visit them after driving or flying across the country and to get there (unlike the few locals fortunate enough to live nearby). But if the parks can't offer what we expect... will we continue going? Let's dive into the economics of National Park and Tourism Recreation.

How many people visit the Southwest National Parks annually? 35 million. And how much do they spend? $1.3 billion (Owen 2008). That's more than, in pop culture terms, Beyonce's and Jay Z's net worth going into the region EVERY YEAR (National Parks are ***Flawless)!

So less visitors=less money. But how much? And why would less people come? Well if most people come for water-specific sport, less water would discourage visitors. For example, at Lake Meade and Lake Powell (Glen Canyon) between 1999-2003 lake levels dropped 2.1% and 5.4% respectively (Morehouse et al. 2007). Ok so that's not a huge drop in water but it led to a loss of 1.4 million visits, 1,438 jobs, $60.2 million in tourist spending and $23 million in local incomes. In fact it's suggested that for every 1% drop in water levels, Lake Powell loses 5% of visitors (Owen 2008). As the Southwest dries, less and less visitors will come to the National Parks. This has major implications for the people living nearby as a loss of jobs in the tourism industry will no doubt trickle down to other sectors of the economy.

However, increasingly warm winters actually brings more visitors to the national parks (unless you want to go to a low-desert park) (CLIMAS 2011). The warmer winter temperatures actually encourage people to explore the parks. However, warming winter temperatures can negatively affect the ski industry as seen earlier in Part IV- Recreation, and therefore discourage people from coming to the mountains of the Southwest. In addition, increasing summer temperatures further discourages visitors from coming. So while there may be seasonal gains in the parks, overall the National Parks are losing visitors to the drying, heating climate.

The drying climate is a big factor in the prominence of forest fires in the Southwest (Freedman 2013). Although forest fire suppression management throughout the National Parks has also lead to an increased fire risk, a drier forest will burn more quickly! For more on fires catch up on PART V- DISASTER. National Parks and recreation face a big threat; if there's no water and no trees left, will people continue to come? Or will the way we play in the parks change with the changing landscape? Only time will tell!

Hashtag Rain

UPDATE: LOS ANGELES RAIN

Like OMG it's raining. Source: Buzzfeed

The skies have opened up! It has rained in L.A. I just wanted to give a quick update on the rain that has been happening in California; we'll continue with Southwest Recreation next post.

It has been raining a lot this week by Los Angeles standards. The LA Times (3/12/14) summarized that 1.21 inches fell in downtown L.A. with upwards of 3.5 inches in the mountains over two days. That breaks the 1960s rainfall records! This rainfall is great but it doesn't mean the drought is over. One rainstorm does not solve a 3 year drought in a week. Also these storms bring with them their own problems.

I'm not saying we shouldn't welcome or celebrate the rain; it's a much needed relief for the drying Southwest BUT I'm saying we shouldn't praise this storm as a save-all.

• The drought. One storm can't solve it all. If this storm is an indicator of a wetter El Nino year (which we're still not sure of yet (LA Times 2/12/14)) then California might be able to combat the longstanding drought. However, this storm alone added 5 billion gallons to Lake Oroville, a major water reservoir, but keep in mind that's only 1% of its capacity. As the LA Times (2/12/14) explains "state water experts said it would take 150% of the average rainfall of California to recover from the current drought." This rainfall is great for L.A., but it needs more!
• Mudslides. As the hills have dried and been prone to forest fires, the hills then become prone to mudslides (see this LA Times (1/12/14) series of gifs for an overview). In this storm, communities around the hills have had to be evacuated for fears of mudslides (LA Times 2/12/14). Flash storms can threaten communities in Southern California so while bringing water, they also bring problems.
• Runoff. Los Angeles is a big urban area and with that comes a lot of runoff during storms. This runoff means the city loses water to the ocean and flushes a lot of pollution out to sea (NBC Los Angeles 3/12/14). While there are water runoff treatment and recycling plants already in place, they can't handle the influx from flash storms and the city loses billions of gallons of water to the sea. Los Angeles needs to develop further systems to recycle the storm runoff.

Now when you see more about the recent Los Angeles rain storms just remember Los Angeles needs this rain! But the rain doesn't come problem free and the city, state and entire region will need a whole lot more of it to recover from the current drought.

#SoCalProblems Source: Tumblr

Double Black Diamond or a Bunny Baby?

PART IV- RECREATION

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

The weather outside is frightful. Source: Tumblr

Welcome to December and welcome to a new section in our journey through the drying Southwest, recreation! Snow! Now I bet that's not a word you thought you'd here much of here with all the previous talks of drought, rain and deserts. Yet, the higher altitudes of the Rockies in the Southwest are affected by the changing climate. Snowfall, or the lack of snowfall, plays a huge role in the Colorado economy. Look at the map below, it represents just some of Colorado's most beloved ski resorts by celebrities on glamorous retreats to families on vacation to locals who live there.

To ski or snowboard... now that's a question! Ski resorts in Colorado. Source: Dive Fish Snow Travel

But what's the problem? Aren't the ski slopes high enough away to escape the aridification? Well as Painter et al. (2007) discuss, drought in the Colorado plateau causes dust to blow into the mountains. This dust then increases ablation and shortens the snow cover season from half a month to a full month! The lower snow albedo and shorter coverage caused by the dust also leads to earlier snow melts. Painter et al. (2010) found that in the Upper Colorado River Basin snow was melting on average 3 weeks earlier and that the earlier season meant the Basin lost 5% of water to increased evapotranspiration. This has huge implications for the already thirsty Southwest; less water means more problems. So can places like Vail and Aspen survive if they're receiving shorter snow seasons and earlier melts?

Last year Colorado PBS (2013) did an excellent piece on the future of the ski resorts. I want to discuss some of their arguments they make on the future of these towns. Without the snowfall many of these towns will struggle as business have to shut and people lose their jobs. Across the U.S., on a bad snow year the skiing industry loses $1 billion and this then threatens the almost 200,000 people employed in this industry. It's no doubt that Colorado makes up a large part of the American ski season as New England skiing has taken a dramatic decline in recent years. Yet as PBS discusses in the early 2010s Aspen only got 50% of its average snowfall.

However, the video points out that ski visitor numbers aren't changing (with 11-12 million ski visitors on average annually across the industry for the past 10 years) but that the variation is more site specific. While Vail might have a bad ski season Utah could be overwhelmed with snow. Because of this the ski industry isn't taking unified action to educate and protect the snowy climates, instead it's a more 'every-slope-for-himself' strategy of management. 

So are there alternatives? Can the ski season survive the drying Southwest? Well there is an option to manually produce snow. However, in Aspen it takes 600,000 gallons of water a minute to make snow for just 4 mountains that cover just 10% of the terrain (PBS). Obviously this can't be a longterm solution. In a drying environment that is an irresponsible use of water and power and the majority of smaller resorts will not be able to handle the cost of maintaining this and could crumble. 

So what are the mountains to do? As the Southwest gets drier and drier, the slopes will eventually as well. There won't be a ski industry left to save if we don't manage the reduction of snow through managing the entirety of Southwest aridification and stabilize the dusty deserts.

If only Elsa could let it snow over here! Source: Movie Pilot

Power to the People

PART III- URBAN SETTLEMENTS

Who owns the land?

While not from the Southwest she totally would have supported water rights. Source: Tumblr

We've looked at water rights and usage through a very Western focus so now it's time to touch on Native's rights to water in the American Southwest. I want to give an overview of some of the issues with Arizonian Native water distribution. *Disclaimer* I will not single out individual tribes to maintain an overview perspective.

So do Native people have rights to water and the rivers? In theory, of course they do! Tribal lands have water needs just as the cities and farmlands need water. The problem comes when Native uses and Western uses come into conflict with each other. 

In Arizona Anderson et al. (nd) highlight the five C's; Copper, Cattle, Citrus, Cotton and Climate and how all together the industries are draining the state of water in addition to the state's aridification. As the big C's are intertwined politically, they marginalize Native's when attempting to claim water rights. 

However, that changed with the Arizona Water Settlements Act that passed in 2004. The bill ensures that Arizonian Natives permanently receive 47% of the Central Arizona Project water supply. This guarantees water rights to the tribes and reestablished the water rights hierarchy putting native uses above the rest (Anderson et al. nd). In addition, as Arizona does not always fully use its share of the Colorado River it means that within their share, Natives are able to store the water they don't use for times of drought. As Anderson et al. state this is mostly done by replenishing groundwater aquifers.

Sometimes the Native lands are too large, dry and sparsely populated to efficiently use running water sources. Karanikola et al. (2014) developed a method to clean brackish groundwater through a solar powered device to ensure tribal lands have access to clean water. While great in design this will only be viable in the long run if the groundwater is replenished! 

The further you dive into Native water rights the more complex it gets with individual tribes taking states to court over it. But I wanted to introduce this alternative. While our mega farming and urban sprawl grows thirstier and thirstier its easy to forget other cultures need that water too. This is not to say that Natives don't participate in development but rather the development does not always appear as we might expect it to.

So what do you think? Should we be more concerned with how much water the Natives get? Is it enough/too little? What about future water sustainability? You tell me!

Catch My Breath

Part III- Urban Settlements

It's so hard for me to breathe!

 

How can you breathe? Source: Tumblr 

Southern California is no stranger to air pollution. It's a landscape filled with freeways and cars. It's home to major ports and airports. I mean look at how many freeways run through Los Angeles alone:

 

Where will the road take you? LA freeway system. Source: Orange Juice Blog 

So how does Southern California get so air polluted? NASA (2013) gives a simple overview! Los Angeles is bordered by mountains and the sea creating a bowl environment so that most of the air pollution gets stuck in the city. In a city where transportation is key, most of the emissions get stuck in Los Angeles.

I wanted to share with you this video that highlights air quality in Southern California. While it is a 'call to arms/pull on the heartstrings' type film it raises some good points about air pollution in the area and how the residents have to adapt to this. The South Coast Air Quality Management District, the film producers, are a partially federally funded organization that focuses on clean air without trying to hinder business. This is almost contradictory because they want to reduce air pollution yet name the ports and railways as the major pollutants to the area (the key drivers of SoCal business). However, while maybe exaggerating to create interest for their cause this quote really stuck with me: "Nearly 5,000 Southern Californians die prematurely each year due to air pollution." Southern Californians have had to quickly adapt to their rapidly growing urban environment in the past century and it has not always produced a good outcome. That's not to say Los Angelenos aren't aware of this problem; organizations like the South Coast AQMD exist because people want to reduce air pollution! While air pollution has been improving and various clean up schemes are in place (EPA 2013), Los Angeles still suffers from polluted air.

Check it out and tell me what you think:

Let the Sun Shine!

PART III- URBAN SETTLEMENTS

Turn the lights on

Wake me up! Source: Trip Me

As we've seen the population of the Southwest is growing and more growth comes with higher energy demand!. The Southwest gets its power through a variety of sources from hydroelectric dams to natural gas (Siler-Evans et al. 2013). But let's focus in on one particular source that is being developed to meet increased energy demands: Arizona's solar energy!

Here's a fun map of Arizona to give you a feel of the place... looks pretty dry and sunny doesn't it!

Great place to get a tan. Map of Arizona. Source: Mappery

Arizona has great potential for solar resources (Haag et al. 2012). The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) outlines some quick facts about solar power in Arizona:

• The industry employs nearly 9,000 people
• "In 2013 Arizona installed 701 MW of solar energy capacity"
• Over $1 billion was invested in solar installations in 2013 alone
• Arizona solar prices continue to fall making it more affordable to switch to solar energy

This is great news for the environment of the Southwest and the people that live there! The construction of solar plants or on-site solar energy generators will also further reduce costs to customers by minimizing electrical power line maintenance and associated costs (SEIA).

But are there risks associated with this? Of course! There's always risks! Tsoutsos et al. (2005) published a solar power environmental impact assessment. Yes plants and animals may lose a bit of habitat during the construction and maintenance of solar sites. Species may also burn themselves by coming too close to the solar reflectors. However, most of the risks with solar energy are visual and audio which can be minimized with proper construction and sensible design. 

So how do we keep harnessing the sunshine in Arizona? Well the main issues appears to be cost. Both Zhai (2013) and Haag et al. (2012) argue that to increase the use of solar energy, financial support and initiatives must be given to the people. Initially it is costly to switch to solar but the more people do, the cheaper it becomes! Households are already willing to pay upwards of $17 a month for solar research (Mueller 2013). Both with federal and state funding, Arizona can become the King of the Sun.

Yet while Arizona has a larger share of solar resources, it doesn't have the greatest effect in reducing American carbon usage (Siler-Evans et al. 2013). But just because Phoenix solar power doesn't offset New York City emissions does it mean the Southwest shouldn't be trying to make themselves sustainable especially with its predicted future population growth? I think the Southwest will have a lot of environmental concerns in the coming years and if it can begin tackling its problems now, why not! What do you think?

I'll leave you to think it over as you embrace your inner Burning Man to this beat:

Water the Lawns

PART III- URBAN SETTLEMENTS

Growing Demands

Is the grass always greener? Source: Hollywood Bollywood

The American Southwest is home to some of the largest American cities! These cities help drive the country's economy and are iconic in the global cultural landscape. However, without enough water can these cities continue to exist? Will future generations be able to Viva Las Vegas?

It's undeniable how quickly the Southwest has grown. Las Vegas went from a town of under 300,000 in the 1990s to now over 600,000 people! The speed of urban growth in the Southwest has put many municipal governments under pressure to provide for their new citizens; water departments particularly face this pressure when these new residents expect clean endless water. Yet when predicting future Vegas growth more people will continue to move to areas poor water supplies putting further pressure on the water industry (Sun et al. 2013). 

The sustainability of these cities is at stake. Take Las Vegas, the city is in the desert and 90% of the city depends on Lake Mead as a water source (CBS News 30/01/14). As the Colorado River flows through multiple states, the states have set up agreements to the rights of the river. Yet times have changed since the allocations were set and Vegas is no longer a small town. If Vegas is to continue growing it'll need more water and yet the Lake is disappearing and the quality of water is threatened with increased growth (CBS News 30/01/14; Sun et al. 2013). However, the persistent drought stands in the way. ALL the states need the water more than ever so Las Vegas has little chances of siphoning off water from somewhere else AND someone else (Las Vegas Sun 29/06/14). It's a tricky situation, continue to quench Vegas' thirst or try and keep the farmlands green?

Are we going to... gamble... on our future? Source: Film International

Los Angeles, the second largest urban settlement in America, also has its share of water shortages. The Metropolitan Water District (From San Diego to San Bernardino County) is managing the same amount of water as it did in the 1990s but now the population has jumped from 14 million to 19 million (Huffington Post 23/01/14). L.A. relies on nearly half of its water to be imported and another large chunk to come from groundwater. This is not to say that cities like L.A. have poor water management; in fact the water infrastructure is well designed and complex, it's just that the environment has changed and now the infrastructure needs to follow suit (Huffington Post 23/01/14). 

Don't fear though! The cities are making progress for water conservation! L.A. has implemented several water saving strategies such as recycling water, encouraging the use high efficiency washing machines and toilets, and implementing mandatory water conservation strategies (LADWP 2013). Los Angeles actually pays its citizens to re-landscape to more drought tolerant species in what it calls "Cash for Grass". From the LADWP website they state:

• "Since 1977, LADWP's Water Conservation Program has saved over 106,000 acre-feet per year (AFY) of water."

That's a lot water to go around!

Some will argue the cost of water conservation is too high. O'Connor et al. (2010) use L.A. as an example to show the costs of total water management and their findings are costly. Yet in the long run isn't spending the $566 million in a recycled water treatment plant worth it when the alternative could be water insecurity? What about the costs of maintaining an unsustainable water network? The more knowledge and concern the citizens of these cities have the more likely they'll further support water management strategies and even water price increases (Salvaggio et al. 2014). With more citizen involvement in water planning more citizen awareness will be generated thus fueling even more water conservation. Unlike the farming world, the cities appear more able, although this does not assume willingness, to adapt.

What do you think, will the cities be able to quench their growing thirsts?

Goodbye Jobs

PART II- AGRICULTURE

Where will all the worker go?

Lets deconstruct the problem further. Source: Giphy

The changing Southwest affects more than just the natural environment. The people that live there depend on their home to sustain them. But what happens to them when the drought hits? We've been exploring how the Californian farming economy is on the losing side of this battle, so what happens to the farmers and farm hands?

As with many farming economies in the US, California relies heavily on migrant labor to pick the crops and maintain the fields (Bloomburg 14/02/14). So surely if there's less crop production then there will be less jobs in agriculture. During the 2009 droughts upwards of 6,000 people lost jobs in the farming industry (Alijazeera 26/02/14). And with this drought the losses could be up to 15,000 jobs. That's a lot of people out of work and it doesn't come at an opportunistic time in the American economy. 

But can't these people try and find jobs somewhere else? The answer: probably not, or at least not as easily as we would hope. Bloomburg (14/02/14) highlights several issues with this migrant labor force. They are usually uneducated for starters, which makes switching into other industries with a set of different required skills difficult. On top of this they are likely to be Hispanic with several being undocumented therefore making it unlikely to be employable in other sectors. In addition, these low-income, minority families have very little socio-economic ability to just up and change lifestyles meaning this shift in employment will likely upset the entire family from grandparents relying on remittances to children not being able to attend school. From the outside it looks like these workers can't find a job for the summer but in reality they might not be able to establish a livelihood.  

It is not just the farm workers that are losing out but the farmers too. The farmers have to make these tough employment decisions knowing how it affects rural communities (Washington Post 9/02/14). Farmers themselves have to manage a smaller income and its consequences. With increased 'thirstification' the cost may become too much and force farmers into new industries or into moving away from the drying rural areas. 

In this section we have explored the consquences of the drying American Southwest of farming. So if it's so bad shouldn't everyone move to the cities? Oh don't worry they have their problems too so stay tuned for our next section: Urban Settlements!

Let's do this! Source: Viator

Fresh Fruit

PART II- AGRICULTURE

And the farmers gonna farm, farm, farm, farm, farm...

Who doesn't like a good apple? Source: Imgur

It seems like there's a lot of doom and gloom in California and those water greedy farmers are all to blame. But are they? Why punish the farmers in what's recognized as the most productive American farmland? In the 1990s 9/10 of the top producing farming counties were Californian (Cook 1998)! As California is a top producer in produce don't we all love and want fresh cheap fruit like Natalie Dormer enjoying her apple?

While farmers are the big drinkers of water in the Southwest they're doing it to benefit your wallet at the grocery store. Most of California's production, naturally, is for the 300 million people in the domestic American market. But as a highly developed country there's only so many more fruits and vegetables Americans can fit into their diets (and budgets) annually (Cook 1998). So what's a farmer to do? New expensive technology, increasing international competition, increasing labor costs, increasing rents, etc don't stop just because new consumption rates have slowed. Naturally farmers turn towards the crops that will get them more money, which consequently also use more water; check out the graph below! In addition farmers will produce more to sell more at cheap prices to maintain their American consumer base and compete in other global markets (Cook 1998).

Crop production changes 2003-2012. Source: New York Times 20/04/14

Here's where we have a problem: increasing intensive farming using more water with less water to go around. As the cost of production goes up the farmers will continue to produce what will bring them the biggest profit. And with record loses predicted during this drought, upwards of the billions (Wall Street Journal 15/07/14), farmers will continue to produce high profit crops despite the increased costs associated with water usage. This will only further the aridification of the Southwest. The media frequently reports on the potential for rising food prices because of the drought, but as NPR (23/05/14) suggests farmers will ensure all available water they have will go towards the crops to keep prices down.

There is hope though! Community gardens may relieve some of the farming pressures. Algert et al. (2014) found that community gardens in San Jose actually produce vegetables more intensively than traditional farming practices and save money per square foot. Yet are we going to leave the future of vegetables to people with various skills and patients and not the farmers themselves?

Here's where the farmers get stuck in the blame game. Despite having less water farmers will use more water to maintain the agricultural industry that we indulge in. So who's to blame for furthering the 'thirstification' of the Southwest? You tell me!

Yes I know guac costs extra

PART II- AGRICULTURE

The plants are thirsty

How heavenly! Source: Mouthy Mag

For me nothing is a better snack that chips, salsa and most importantly guacamole! But if your produce is coming from the USA chances are you're eating Californian avocados, tomatoes, limes, onions, etc... The Californian agriculture industry is roughly around $45 BILLION (Choy and McGhee 2014). That's almost a quarter of America's produce production (San Jose Mercury News 29/03/14). How can one state grow that much??? For those non-Americans California is a massive state at almost 500,000 square kilometers! Look below for a map comparison with the UK:

Such a tiny island. Outline of the UK against Cali. Source: Travelers' Digest

California needs a lot of water to maintain our Pico de Gallo obsession! But with less water available farmers have had to tap further and further into the ground to get it. Groundwater depletion monitoring over such a large area is hard to do! Famiglietti et al. (2011), focusing on satellite data from 2003-2010, found that the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins lost 30.9 cubic kilometers of water and the Central Valley lost 20.3 cubic kilometers of groundwater. It was clear that this rate of depletion was unsustainable when the paper was published but mother nature has a way of making things even messier for the Southwest. California has been in a drought-like state for the past 3 years!

"'Cause I'm burning up, burning up for you baby." Systematic Cali drought. Source: Telegraph 28/10/14

To save the agricultural industry more groundwater is used during drought, but after 3 years the state is drying quickly! Californians rely 60% on groundwater during drought years, compared to just 29% in a normal year (Choy and McGhee 2014). So how do farmer's do it? Are the costs of well drilling less than potential loses? Let's focus in on the Central Valley. Farmers now have to dig 1000+ feet below at a cost of over $300,000 per well to reach the aquifers (Dimik 2014). That's quite a price tag yet despite this farmers have been paying up! But the Central Valley is still expected to lose $1.7 BILLION from this drought (Choy and McGhee 2014). It appears that farmers will lose out either way!

The problem is multiplied by a lack of governmental structure to prevent groundwater loses! People are free to use the water under their land in California and there's no legislation against this. Look at the increases in well permits for the Central Valley in recent years:

Hopefully all the Jacks and Jills won't fall in. California well water permits. Source: San Jose Mercury News 29/03/14

Some legislation has been proposed to limit the amount of wells and protect the groundwater resources but its unlikely to come into effect (or voted on) until the 2020s (Washington Post 06/08/14)! Yet even with regulation, the environment may not benefit more than the farmers lose out (Grantham et al. 2013). The farming industry is constantly scrutinized for using too much water or not using enough to keep the industry afloat.

It's clear the California we love is dependent on its agricultural economy. Yet it's also clear the rate of groundwater depletion to sustain this economy is unreasonable and furthers the state's water insecurity. While we love avocados and apples and wine if groundwater depletion continues in this way the entire agricultural industry could collapse dramatically changing Californian, American and global society. We need to work towards a more sustainable water usage system in the Southwest as less and less water is expected to arrive.

Will we have a Groasis?

Part I- NATURAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES

The Changing Sands

So thirsty. Source: Giphy

This week concludes our 'Natural Landscape Changes'. We've witnessed how the Southwest is losing precipitation and partly as a result, is losing river flows! What this creates is a more arid climate prone to desertification!

Look here at Las Vegas' urban growth. As it expands the reservoir loses more and more water. While the city grows, Lake Mead shrinks. Barnett and Pierce (2008) make startling claims like there's a 50% chance Lake Mead's live storage will disappear by 2021. While the flaws of their argument, such as the underlying hydrological assumptions they make, are debated by Barsugli et al. (2009) and others no one debates that the lake is shrinking. It has become more a matter of when and how quickly.

Viva Las Vegas? Las Vegas Growth. Source: Imgur

This desertification or aridification or as I call it 'thirstification' is becoming more widespread in American thought. While Earth scientists have been aware of what's happening for decades the news outlets have picked up on it. Its even found its way into mainstream pop culture. Check out this Jimmy Kimmel Live sketch. While humorous, this highlights how far reaching public awareness is to the recent California droughts. We have a Nashville singer on a Los Angeles show being broadcast during the 'late night' time slot to the East Coast about California's problems. 

This is not to say it is all doom and gloom for the Southwest. Many ecosystems are adapted to desert like conditions and inevitably will perform much better than others in the future like the Sonoran Desert in southern Arizona and New Mexico. The concern lies more with how will the more seasonal and temperate ecosystems adapt but also how will we as humans adapt?

As we go into the future we'll tackle these questions starting with our next section 'Agriculture'.

Let it flow; let it flow. Can't hold it back anymore!

PART I- NATURAL LANDSCAPE CHANGES

The changing flows

Can't hold me back... or can we? Source: Gif Bay

Precipitation isn't the only changing part of the hydrosphere in the Southwest! The rivers have changed too! Let's focus in on the mighty Colorado River!

The Colorado River and Tributaries. Source: Wikipedia

The Colorado quick facts:

• It is a major source of water for the dry dry American and Mexican Southwest
• The river services over 30 million people! Zielinski (2010)
• 70% of the river feeds 3.5 million hectares of farmland. Zielinski (2010)
• The river's average flow of 15 million hectare feet is variable between 6-20 million hectare feet. MIT
• The river is dammed to create large reservoirs and generate over 4,000 megawatts of power. MIT
• The river's flow is decreasing in the basin. USGS (2004)
• The Colorado River no longer regularly reaches the sea... WHAT?

Check out this quick video to see the beauty and diversity of this landscape but also the problems facing the river

If you're one of those TL;DR types (or in this case watch): The river is beautiful; humans are over using it!

So what does this mean? Where is the river going? 75% of the river's flow comes from Rocky Mountain snow melt. Yet with predicted temperature increases the river could lose as much as 20% of its flow (MIT). The decreased flow/increasing usage is already evident. The large reservoirs are steadily decreasing and may never reach original levels again (Zielinski 2010). With projected population growth in the Southwest it is clear the Colorado like so many other water sources in the region will be put under more stress. The changes in the Southwest hydrosphere serve as the basis for many other environmental changes in its diverse landscape! 

Rain rain go away but please come back to L.A.

Part I- Natural Landscape Changes

The changing rains

Pitter Patter Pitter Patter. Source: Tumblr

Let's get down to the basics of this drying; what's really changing? Frequently we're told of a wetter world where large scale storms inundate our cities and make us leave our houses perpetually carrying an umbrella. Well the American Southwest misses out on this problem. Check it out; the Southwest has lost rainfall and will continue to lose rainfall in the coming decade!

The rate of rainfall changes since 1901. The Southwest has seen diminishing rainfall! Source: EPA (2014)

Predicted changes in rainfall based on NOAA climate models. The Southwest will lose more rainfall! Source: Southwest Climate Change Network (2008)

The Southwest is not only losing rainfall; but the way it gets its water is also changing! Summarized by the Union of Concerned Scientists warmer temperatures mean less snowfall. And warmer temperatures mean earlier snowmelts, sometimes up to 60 days early! In addition, when the summer and spring rains arrive they come in heavy downpours and the parched land struggles to retain the moisture! The Southwest system is losing water from precipitation and what it does get it struggles to keep.

However, who's to say this change is not natural, fluxual and will return to its earlier state? Why are we so concerned about all this weather? We know that there is something of a North American Monsoon that brings changing precipitation to the American Southwest (Climate Prediction Center 2004). El Nino's also bring changes to the Southwest. Gutzler and Preston (1997) found that during El Nino's the amount of snowfall would be inversely related to summer rainfall. Perhaps the lower summer rains are caused by higher snowfalls in the Rocky Mountains. Notaro and Zarrin (2011) found similar results when modelling the Rocky Mountain snowpack. So with these large scale climatic systems affected the Southwest should we be worried about the future rain?

Yes we should! While the monsoons and El Ninos have undoubtedly affected the region in the past 100 years and will do so again in the next, the signs are pointing to a dryer Southwest. The Southwest has lost both winter and summer precipitation. As Notaro et al. (2010) highlight, the rainfall feeds the vegetative system in the Southwest and without it the entire region will be thrown out of balance forcing humans and animals alike to adapt to a dramatically changing landscape. 

Rainfall is at the core of the American Southwest like most of our homes so I'll leave you here to grab a cup of tea, listen to the songs of nature and think about that new rain smell!

Getting Thirsty?

Hello and welcome to "From One Ex-Stream to Another"

My name is Charles Axelsson and I'm a 3rd year in my BSc Geography. Over the next four months (and maybe beyond) I'll be posting here about the consequences of drying climates drawing mostly on the American Southwest. 

The American Southwest with subregions. Source: Wikipedia

Excluding Texas, the American Southwest is home to some 50 million people alone (EPA 2013) with 90% of the population living in urban areas including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Denver (Global Change). The region is extremely important not only economically but also culturally. From the cinematic landscapes of Southern California to the mountain recreation of Colorado to the agricultural production of New Mexico the American Southwest is a big player in the United States as well as the world!

People aren't the only creatures home to the region! The mighty Colorado River roars through the region while wildlife thrives in the National Parks like Yosemite, Yellow Stone and Grand Canyon. The region captures many ecosystems filled with unique wildlife from redwood trees to cacti and from grizzly bears to rattlesnakes. The region also grows half of American high-wealth crops such as the always beloved avocado (Global Change).

My love of avocados. Source: Raw Girl

So what? Why care about this region? Can't they just go on living in their happy sunny way under the palm trees? NO! The American Southwest is changing! It's drying! The land is thirsty! In the past century the average temperature rose 1.5 degrees F with an expected 8 degrees rise coming this century (EPA 2013). With all this heat the desert is getting warmer and less snow is falling and melting into the lakes and rivers that fuel this climatic anti-humidity oasis. On top of this springtime rainfall is expected to decreases leaving those summers hotter and dryer (EPA 2013). 

As we go on our journey through the American Southwest we will explore what this drying means for the environment from agriculture production, wildfires, urban development, species responses, erosion, and beyond! So grab a cocktail and pull up to the poolside, take a hot cocoa while overlooking the ski slopes or order a drink in a Western bar and get ready to feel the heat!