I See Fire

PART V- DISASTER

How do we let it burn?

Acres to burn. Source: Tumblr

Droughts, changing climates, wildfires? What do these all have in common? I'll outline how the climate induced droughts are increasing the risk of wildfires!

Warmer temperatures and less precipitation can dramatically increase the chance of  forest fires. Western American forests are more prone to fires roughly a month after snowmelts (National Wildlife Foundation). With earlier snowmelts in the Southwest, the longer fire season becomes. Drought also reduces the moisture of forests leaving them more readily combustible (The Nature Conservancy). In addition, warmer temperatures can increase thunderstorm severity and bring more frequent lightening creating more fires (National Wildlife Foundation). Warmer temperatures are also conductive for spreading invasive insects in forests which in turn weaken the trees rendering them more readily combustible (National Wildlife Foundation). It's clear that as temperatures get warmer and drought increases in the Southwest, the forests will be more prone to burning whether or not they actually do. The threat is increasing in one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S.

Perhaps drought and fire is something unique to the Southwest? Well I want to draw you're attention to an Eastern Canadian study. Carcaillet et al (2001) reconstructed fire regimes from lake cores and conclude that the drying of the climate 2-3000 Y.B.P. allowed for more drought and increased fires. Forests on different sides of continents experience similar drought and fire structuring so the Southwest is not an anomaly. 

How do we measure this drought/fire relationship? The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI or Palmer Drought Index) is a long-term meterological moisture index (NOAA 2013). As such the PDSI is an indicator of wildfire risk as long-term aridification or drought is more indicative of fire threat than one day without rain (Patterson 2013). However, PDSI is not a perfect indicator. It is not always able to predict the extent of area that burns in a fire (Gedalof et al. 2005). In addition, fires don't just happen; there needs to be a cause so drought does not necessarily mean a fire is imminent. Overall, the PDSI is a good indicator of the fire season severity, despite its shortcomings, and can be useful in predicting this up to a year before the season (Gershunov et al. 2003). While PDSI may not be perfect, it is a good starting place for fire management and can help begin to tackle the increased risk of fires in a drying climate. Next time we'll dive into the media frenzy of recorded fires in the Southwest but for now check out the most recent PDSI:

Some clear regional differences in moisture. U.S. PDSI Source: NOAA 2014

(R)ice Bucket Challenge

PART V- DISASTER

Setting the Stage

She didn't think this through. Source: Tumblr

Hello and welcome to our next section: DISASTERS! Disasters, mainly fires, are a visible sign of a drying climate and bring a lot of media attention.

To recap, we know the Southwest is in drought and we know that the drought is going to continue. Look at the most recent drought index for California:

It's getting dry in here. Source: U.S. Drought Portal

The next posts will not be too upbeat (there's no good way to talk about fire destruction) so I want to quickly point out how ingrained the drought has come in Californian culture. This summer youtube, facebook, instagram, you name it was taken by storm for the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge. I'm not here to talk about the cause but rather the challenge itself: you dump a bucket of ice water on your head. 

As it swept across the nation, in California it wasn't always popular. The Long Beach Post (18/08/14) estimated that the ice bucket challenge had wasted "19,000 homes' daily water usage". In California, people started ice bucket shaming those that wasted too much water in attempting the challenge (LA Times 20/08/14). A satirical article even suggested than fines were being imposed against Californian challenge participants because it violated the Phase 2 water saving program (Daily Currant 15/08/14). While untrue, it raises the question of if fines should have been imposed on the water wasters. As the rest of the country was dumping buckets of water on their heads, California recognized the impracticality of this in their state.

While some still used ice water, others, like "Wrecking Ball" singer Miley, found alternatives with the rice bucket challenge. Discussing drought is no longer only for specialists in the Southwest anymore, it is debated by all residents! So hopefully this cooled you down before we begin to handle the flames of wildfires!

Does the Castle Need a Moat?

PART IV- RECREATION

Splash Mountain

When you wish upon a star. Source: Tumblr

What happens to amusement parks during droughts? They use up a lot of water for attractions, landscaping and visitor amenities (every toilet flush uses water!). Let's focus on Disneyland Resorts in Anaheim, California as it was the world's second largest, and the Southwest's largest, amusement park by attendance in 2012 with nearly 16 million visitors (Themed Entertainment Association 2013). 

Disneyland is located here outside Los Angeles in Orange County:

Get on the freeway. Disney's location in SoCal. Source: Travelocity

When calls to use less water are made, they usually exclude Disneyland. And why's this? Because it is a big employer and big business that brings in tourists to Southern California (and their money). Keeping these parks open are so important it's even suggested that Federal water could be taken away from agriculture for Disneyland if the state regulation fails (The Sacramento Bee 7/10/14). In fact as a business Disneyland can get around potential water saving ordinances like the anti-pool draining measures (Orange County Register 9/09/14). In times of drought Disneyland has a history of business as usual. In the drought of the late 1980's, the park maintained operations despite water stress (LA Times 5/05/90). So is Disney a water drinking monster with no concern for droughts and a drying climate?

Disneyland has taken some steps to improve their water usage. Here are some of the measures outlined on their Disneyland Public Affairs website:

• Storing drained water through the Orange County Water District Groundwater Replenishment System to recycle when filling Disney water attractions.
• Using low-flux toilets to reduce water usage.
• Building with porous asphalt to allow water to enter the groundwater system.
• Below ground irrigation to reduce evaporation rates.
• Using drought-tolerant plants for landscaping.

Disneyland isn't ignorant to the challenges facing Southwest 'thirstification' but is what they're doing enough. If the climate is going to get drier is the park sustainable to run with all the water is needs? It appears as if the government has taken the side of the park to keep business and maintain tourism and recreation. Yet by shutting down the park or closing water-consuming attractions the park could be more environmentally friendly. What do you think? Should the park adopts a policy of continued perseverance or measures of aquatic austerity? Should Disneyland be required to publish its total annual (tourist bathrooms included!) water usage for public access?

Will They Wake Up Like This?

PART IV- RECREATION

Road Trip to the Canyons

Yo yo Yosemite! Source: Tumblr

The beauty of the American National Parks. I bet images of bears, geysers, canyons, salmon, etc all spring into your mind. Who doesn't love a good adventure through the final frontiers! But most of us no longer live in these 'wilds'; we pay our way to visit them after driving or flying across the country and to get there (unlike the few locals fortunate enough to live nearby). But if the parks can't offer what we expect... will we continue going? Let's dive into the economics of National Park and Tourism Recreation.

How many people visit the Southwest National Parks annually? 35 million. And how much do they spend? $1.3 billion (Owen 2008). That's more than, in pop culture terms, Beyonce's and Jay Z's net worth going into the region EVERY YEAR (National Parks are ***Flawless)!

So less visitors=less money. But how much? And why would less people come? Well if most people come for water-specific sport, less water would discourage visitors. For example, at Lake Meade and Lake Powell (Glen Canyon) between 1999-2003 lake levels dropped 2.1% and 5.4% respectively (Morehouse et al. 2007). Ok so that's not a huge drop in water but it led to a loss of 1.4 million visits, 1,438 jobs, $60.2 million in tourist spending and $23 million in local incomes. In fact it's suggested that for every 1% drop in water levels, Lake Powell loses 5% of visitors (Owen 2008). As the Southwest dries, less and less visitors will come to the National Parks. This has major implications for the people living nearby as a loss of jobs in the tourism industry will no doubt trickle down to other sectors of the economy.

However, increasingly warm winters actually brings more visitors to the national parks (unless you want to go to a low-desert park) (CLIMAS 2011). The warmer winter temperatures actually encourage people to explore the parks. However, warming winter temperatures can negatively affect the ski industry as seen earlier in Part IV- Recreation, and therefore discourage people from coming to the mountains of the Southwest. In addition, increasing summer temperatures further discourages visitors from coming. So while there may be seasonal gains in the parks, overall the National Parks are losing visitors to the drying, heating climate.

The drying climate is a big factor in the prominence of forest fires in the Southwest (Freedman 2013). Although forest fire suppression management throughout the National Parks has also lead to an increased fire risk, a drier forest will burn more quickly! For more on fires catch up on PART V- DISASTER. National Parks and recreation face a big threat; if there's no water and no trees left, will people continue to come? Or will the way we play in the parks change with the changing landscape? Only time will tell!

Hashtag Rain

UPDATE: LOS ANGELES RAIN

Like OMG it's raining. Source: Buzzfeed

The skies have opened up! It has rained in L.A. I just wanted to give a quick update on the rain that has been happening in California; we'll continue with Southwest Recreation next post.

It has been raining a lot this week by Los Angeles standards. The LA Times (3/12/14) summarized that 1.21 inches fell in downtown L.A. with upwards of 3.5 inches in the mountains over two days. That breaks the 1960s rainfall records! This rainfall is great but it doesn't mean the drought is over. One rainstorm does not solve a 3 year drought in a week. Also these storms bring with them their own problems.

I'm not saying we shouldn't welcome or celebrate the rain; it's a much needed relief for the drying Southwest BUT I'm saying we shouldn't praise this storm as a save-all.

• The drought. One storm can't solve it all. If this storm is an indicator of a wetter El Nino year (which we're still not sure of yet (LA Times 2/12/14)) then California might be able to combat the longstanding drought. However, this storm alone added 5 billion gallons to Lake Oroville, a major water reservoir, but keep in mind that's only 1% of its capacity. As the LA Times (2/12/14) explains "state water experts said it would take 150% of the average rainfall of California to recover from the current drought." This rainfall is great for L.A., but it needs more!
• Mudslides. As the hills have dried and been prone to forest fires, the hills then become prone to mudslides (see this LA Times (1/12/14) series of gifs for an overview). In this storm, communities around the hills have had to be evacuated for fears of mudslides (LA Times 2/12/14). Flash storms can threaten communities in Southern California so while bringing water, they also bring problems.
• Runoff. Los Angeles is a big urban area and with that comes a lot of runoff during storms. This runoff means the city loses water to the ocean and flushes a lot of pollution out to sea (NBC Los Angeles 3/12/14). While there are water runoff treatment and recycling plants already in place, they can't handle the influx from flash storms and the city loses billions of gallons of water to the sea. Los Angeles needs to develop further systems to recycle the storm runoff.

Now when you see more about the recent Los Angeles rain storms just remember Los Angeles needs this rain! But the rain doesn't come problem free and the city, state and entire region will need a whole lot more of it to recover from the current drought.

#SoCalProblems Source: Tumblr

Double Black Diamond or a Bunny Baby?

PART IV- RECREATION

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

The weather outside is frightful. Source: Tumblr

Welcome to December and welcome to a new section in our journey through the drying Southwest, recreation! Snow! Now I bet that's not a word you thought you'd here much of here with all the previous talks of drought, rain and deserts. Yet, the higher altitudes of the Rockies in the Southwest are affected by the changing climate. Snowfall, or the lack of snowfall, plays a huge role in the Colorado economy. Look at the map below, it represents just some of Colorado's most beloved ski resorts by celebrities on glamorous retreats to families on vacation to locals who live there.

To ski or snowboard... now that's a question! Ski resorts in Colorado. Source: Dive Fish Snow Travel

But what's the problem? Aren't the ski slopes high enough away to escape the aridification? Well as Painter et al. (2007) discuss, drought in the Colorado plateau causes dust to blow into the mountains. This dust then increases ablation and shortens the snow cover season from half a month to a full month! The lower snow albedo and shorter coverage caused by the dust also leads to earlier snow melts. Painter et al. (2010) found that in the Upper Colorado River Basin snow was melting on average 3 weeks earlier and that the earlier season meant the Basin lost 5% of water to increased evapotranspiration. This has huge implications for the already thirsty Southwest; less water means more problems. So can places like Vail and Aspen survive if they're receiving shorter snow seasons and earlier melts?

Last year Colorado PBS (2013) did an excellent piece on the future of the ski resorts. I want to discuss some of their arguments they make on the future of these towns. Without the snowfall many of these towns will struggle as business have to shut and people lose their jobs. Across the U.S., on a bad snow year the skiing industry loses $1 billion and this then threatens the almost 200,000 people employed in this industry. It's no doubt that Colorado makes up a large part of the American ski season as New England skiing has taken a dramatic decline in recent years. Yet as PBS discusses in the early 2010s Aspen only got 50% of its average snowfall.

However, the video points out that ski visitor numbers aren't changing (with 11-12 million ski visitors on average annually across the industry for the past 10 years) but that the variation is more site specific. While Vail might have a bad ski season Utah could be overwhelmed with snow. Because of this the ski industry isn't taking unified action to educate and protect the snowy climates, instead it's a more 'every-slope-for-himself' strategy of management. 

So are there alternatives? Can the ski season survive the drying Southwest? Well there is an option to manually produce snow. However, in Aspen it takes 600,000 gallons of water a minute to make snow for just 4 mountains that cover just 10% of the terrain (PBS). Obviously this can't be a longterm solution. In a drying environment that is an irresponsible use of water and power and the majority of smaller resorts will not be able to handle the cost of maintaining this and could crumble. 

So what are the mountains to do? As the Southwest gets drier and drier, the slopes will eventually as well. There won't be a ski industry left to save if we don't manage the reduction of snow through managing the entirety of Southwest aridification and stabilize the dusty deserts.

If only Elsa could let it snow over here! Source: Movie Pilot