Hop off the Blog at LAX

THE END?

Summarizing the drying American Southwest

This dog is so Beverly Hills. Source: Tumblr

Hey everyone! As the Term and Holidays draw to a close it's time to go over what we've discovered on our American journey. We started off on the natural landscape changes in the Southwest. The basis of the 'thirstification' is less precipitation (both summer and winter) which leads to lower river flows and reduced water reservoirs. This then leads to water intensive agriculture using water reserves furthering the region's drought. The cities have to adjust and debate water usage and the drier landscape poses health threats to citizens. The aridification threatens the tourism industry as many parks can no longer be used the same way they once were with higher temperatures, less water and lower snowfalls. Finally, the entire region is at risk as the systematic drying of the Southwest further increases the region's risk of wildfires. 

But finding solutions isn't easy! We can't just ask the millions who call the Southwest home to change overnight! I've posed some alternatives to the business-as-usual in a drier Southwest and I'm sure there's many more that have already been implemented, are in discussion or are yet to be found. From community gardens for relieving agricultural pressure to solar energy for offsetting carbon emissions to unified ski resort action for lobbying snow season protection the Southwest has a future in its drying climate and they will have to adapt as time goes on. 

Catch some powder in the mountains! Source: Tumblr

In case you missed any of my posts over these few months I've linked them all below:

Introduction

• Getting Thirsty?

Part I- Natural Landscape Changes

• Rain rain go away but please come back to L.A.
• Let it flow; let it flow. Can't hold it back anymore!
• Will we have a Groasis?

Part II- Agriculture

• Yes I know guac costs extra
• Fresh Fruit
• Goodbye Jobs

Part III- Urban Settlements

• Water the Lawns
• Let the Sun Shine!
• Catch My Breath
• Power to the People

Part IV- Recreation

• Double Black Diamond or a Bunny Baby?
• Will They Wake Up Like This?
• Does the Castle Need a Moat?

Part V- Disaster

• (R)ice Bucket Challenge
• I See Fire
• Fire. Camera. Action.

Weather Updates

• Hashtag Rain
• Hashtag Snow

The Southwest is a very diverse region made up of several ecosystems from deserts to mountains to coasts. Some of the largest U.S. states in terms of area and population are a part of this region. I hope I have been able to capture how the general trend of aridification can affect all these different places in its own way. If you have any questions or comments about any of my posts please leave a response on my blog or tweet at me @Chaxelsson1

Next time you find yourself cruising Pacific Coast Highway in a convertible or toasting a drink in a Rocky Mountain ski lodge or practicing a round of golf surrounded by the desert landscape take a moment to appreciate this great region and ask yourself what you can do to help the region (or even your own area) adapt to the future! 

Go out and explore the deserts! Source: Tumblr

Fire. Camera. Action.

PART V- DISASTER

Too hot to touch

Flames are always hungry, although they're not always this cute. Source: Tumblr

So why is there all this focus on forest fire? Why does this blog even give it a whole section? While fire seasons and conditions are monitor-able actual wildfires are unpredictable. These destructive (and sometimes fatal) events scare us yet we can't look away; the media latches on to fire stories. As the Southwest burns more often, the media attention may help bring wider attention to the drying at hand which in turn could bring more attention to the urban problems or the agricultural problems. Let's get into the reality of fires in the Southwest.

Fires are increasing in the Southwest. Throughout the Western U.S. 73% of early springs 1970-2003 occurred post-1986. In addition, 56% of wildfires and 72% of burnt land occurred during early spring years (Westerling et al. 2006). Westerling et al. (2011) run a model to suggest that California will see an increase in burning from 36-74% and over 100% in the North. The region is burning; check out these two maps below. In the first one what pops out at you? SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (and this isn't because of all those endless houses and lights)! And in the second see how much of Arizona and New Mexico have a high frequency of fire!

Major fires and their intensity 2001-2012 (oddly enough in units of nuclear power which is about 1,000 megawats per plant). Source: Live Science 2012

Fire frequency everywhere. Fire history in Arizona and New Mexico. Source: The Nature Conservancy

With all this burning it's no doubt the media is constantly showing these fires. The Black Forest Fire burned in Colorado in 2013. It destroyed nearly 500 homes, killed 2 and the damages are estimated at nearly $100 million (Huffingtonpost 10/07/2013). It is Colorado's most destructive fire, which happened to take the title from the Waldo Canyon fire the year before! People care about other people and images like the video below really grabbed the U.S.'s attention:

The increasing media presence around this result of Southwest drying coincides with the fact that media is used to inform us about disasters. As more fires happen, more media will be used to inform the public about them! The media is one of the main bridges between the disaster scientists and the public (Rattien 1990). While Rattien argues that we focus on post-disaster relief, he acknowledges its huge potential for disaster mitigation, something I hope can happen for the Southwest. Social media has an ever bigger ability to inform us during all stages of a disaster instantly and in our palm of our hands through our devices (Houston et al. 2015). We can now live tweet disasters to make sure people evacuate and everyone is safe!

You may have noticed me talking about fires in various states and that's because it's an underlying problem across the Southwest. However, the fires may bring in more media and more awareness thus facilitating more action to counter the 'thirstification'. Is it always darkest (with smoke) just before the dawn?

Hashtag Snow

UPDATE: SOUTHWEST SNOW

Ski into the new year! Source: Tumblr

Hey everyone and Happy New Year! Over the celebrations the Southwest was hit with some interesting weather, SNOW! I wanted to give everyone a quick update on what happened!

Most of the country is in a cold spell and with the colder weather a lot of the Southwest is looking at snow! Snowfall preparations were being made from California through Vegas to the Rockies (NBC 31/12/14). Take a look at this snowfall prediction map:

Lots of NYE snow! Source: Accuweather 29/12/14

Snowfall was observed throughout the region giving a light dusting (this isn't blizzard weather we're talking about) to the sunsoaked Southern California and dry deserts of the Southwest (Washington Post, 31/12/14). Perhaps most importantly, however, snowfall reached the Rockies and the ski resorts! Here's a selection of Colorado locations and their snowfall during the storm (Denver Post, 31/12/14):

• Alma- 7.5 inches
• Boulder- 6.5 inches
• Denver- 2 inches
• Green Mountain Reservoir- 7.5 inches
• Rabbit Ears Pass- 5 inches
• Tiny Town- 5 inches

This snowfall helps relieve pressure on the ski resorts to produce snow and may also help sustain the Colorado River by becoming snow melt in the spring. While we talk about the changing climate of the Southwest it's important to remember that while the overall trend is one of drying, there can still be periods of relief and moisture. The latter quarter of 2014 has given the Southwest rain and snow; what will 2015 bring?

I See Fire

PART V- DISASTER

How do we let it burn?

Acres to burn. Source: Tumblr

Droughts, changing climates, wildfires? What do these all have in common? I'll outline how the climate induced droughts are increasing the risk of wildfires!

Warmer temperatures and less precipitation can dramatically increase the chance of  forest fires. Western American forests are more prone to fires roughly a month after snowmelts (National Wildlife Foundation). With earlier snowmelts in the Southwest, the longer fire season becomes. Drought also reduces the moisture of forests leaving them more readily combustible (The Nature Conservancy). In addition, warmer temperatures can increase thunderstorm severity and bring more frequent lightening creating more fires (National Wildlife Foundation). Warmer temperatures are also conductive for spreading invasive insects in forests which in turn weaken the trees rendering them more readily combustible (National Wildlife Foundation). It's clear that as temperatures get warmer and drought increases in the Southwest, the forests will be more prone to burning whether or not they actually do. The threat is increasing in one of the fastest growing regions in the U.S.

Perhaps drought and fire is something unique to the Southwest? Well I want to draw you're attention to an Eastern Canadian study. Carcaillet et al (2001) reconstructed fire regimes from lake cores and conclude that the drying of the climate 2-3000 Y.B.P. allowed for more drought and increased fires. Forests on different sides of continents experience similar drought and fire structuring so the Southwest is not an anomaly. 

How do we measure this drought/fire relationship? The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI or Palmer Drought Index) is a long-term meterological moisture index (NOAA 2013). As such the PDSI is an indicator of wildfire risk as long-term aridification or drought is more indicative of fire threat than one day without rain (Patterson 2013). However, PDSI is not a perfect indicator. It is not always able to predict the extent of area that burns in a fire (Gedalof et al. 2005). In addition, fires don't just happen; there needs to be a cause so drought does not necessarily mean a fire is imminent. Overall, the PDSI is a good indicator of the fire season severity, despite its shortcomings, and can be useful in predicting this up to a year before the season (Gershunov et al. 2003). While PDSI may not be perfect, it is a good starting place for fire management and can help begin to tackle the increased risk of fires in a drying climate. Next time we'll dive into the media frenzy of recorded fires in the Southwest but for now check out the most recent PDSI:

Some clear regional differences in moisture. U.S. PDSI Source: NOAA 2014

(R)ice Bucket Challenge

PART V- DISASTER

Setting the Stage

She didn't think this through. Source: Tumblr

Hello and welcome to our next section: DISASTERS! Disasters, mainly fires, are a visible sign of a drying climate and bring a lot of media attention.

To recap, we know the Southwest is in drought and we know that the drought is going to continue. Look at the most recent drought index for California:

It's getting dry in here. Source: U.S. Drought Portal

The next posts will not be too upbeat (there's no good way to talk about fire destruction) so I want to quickly point out how ingrained the drought has come in Californian culture. This summer youtube, facebook, instagram, you name it was taken by storm for the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge. I'm not here to talk about the cause but rather the challenge itself: you dump a bucket of ice water on your head. 

As it swept across the nation, in California it wasn't always popular. The Long Beach Post (18/08/14) estimated that the ice bucket challenge had wasted "19,000 homes' daily water usage". In California, people started ice bucket shaming those that wasted too much water in attempting the challenge (LA Times 20/08/14). A satirical article even suggested than fines were being imposed against Californian challenge participants because it violated the Phase 2 water saving program (Daily Currant 15/08/14). While untrue, it raises the question of if fines should have been imposed on the water wasters. As the rest of the country was dumping buckets of water on their heads, California recognized the impracticality of this in their state.

While some still used ice water, others, like "Wrecking Ball" singer Miley, found alternatives with the rice bucket challenge. Discussing drought is no longer only for specialists in the Southwest anymore, it is debated by all residents! So hopefully this cooled you down before we begin to handle the flames of wildfires!

Does the Castle Need a Moat?

PART IV- RECREATION

Splash Mountain

When you wish upon a star. Source: Tumblr

What happens to amusement parks during droughts? They use up a lot of water for attractions, landscaping and visitor amenities (every toilet flush uses water!). Let's focus on Disneyland Resorts in Anaheim, California as it was the world's second largest, and the Southwest's largest, amusement park by attendance in 2012 with nearly 16 million visitors (Themed Entertainment Association 2013). 

Disneyland is located here outside Los Angeles in Orange County:

Get on the freeway. Disney's location in SoCal. Source: Travelocity

When calls to use less water are made, they usually exclude Disneyland. And why's this? Because it is a big employer and big business that brings in tourists to Southern California (and their money). Keeping these parks open are so important it's even suggested that Federal water could be taken away from agriculture for Disneyland if the state regulation fails (The Sacramento Bee 7/10/14). In fact as a business Disneyland can get around potential water saving ordinances like the anti-pool draining measures (Orange County Register 9/09/14). In times of drought Disneyland has a history of business as usual. In the drought of the late 1980's, the park maintained operations despite water stress (LA Times 5/05/90). So is Disney a water drinking monster with no concern for droughts and a drying climate?

Disneyland has taken some steps to improve their water usage. Here are some of the measures outlined on their Disneyland Public Affairs website:

• Storing drained water through the Orange County Water District Groundwater Replenishment System to recycle when filling Disney water attractions.
• Using low-flux toilets to reduce water usage.
• Building with porous asphalt to allow water to enter the groundwater system.
• Below ground irrigation to reduce evaporation rates.
• Using drought-tolerant plants for landscaping.

Disneyland isn't ignorant to the challenges facing Southwest 'thirstification' but is what they're doing enough. If the climate is going to get drier is the park sustainable to run with all the water is needs? It appears as if the government has taken the side of the park to keep business and maintain tourism and recreation. Yet by shutting down the park or closing water-consuming attractions the park could be more environmentally friendly. What do you think? Should the park adopts a policy of continued perseverance or measures of aquatic austerity? Should Disneyland be required to publish its total annual (tourist bathrooms included!) water usage for public access?

Will They Wake Up Like This?

PART IV- RECREATION

Road Trip to the Canyons

Yo yo Yosemite! Source: Tumblr

The beauty of the American National Parks. I bet images of bears, geysers, canyons, salmon, etc all spring into your mind. Who doesn't love a good adventure through the final frontiers! But most of us no longer live in these 'wilds'; we pay our way to visit them after driving or flying across the country and to get there (unlike the few locals fortunate enough to live nearby). But if the parks can't offer what we expect... will we continue going? Let's dive into the economics of National Park and Tourism Recreation.

How many people visit the Southwest National Parks annually? 35 million. And how much do they spend? $1.3 billion (Owen 2008). That's more than, in pop culture terms, Beyonce's and Jay Z's net worth going into the region EVERY YEAR (National Parks are ***Flawless)!

So less visitors=less money. But how much? And why would less people come? Well if most people come for water-specific sport, less water would discourage visitors. For example, at Lake Meade and Lake Powell (Glen Canyon) between 1999-2003 lake levels dropped 2.1% and 5.4% respectively (Morehouse et al. 2007). Ok so that's not a huge drop in water but it led to a loss of 1.4 million visits, 1,438 jobs, $60.2 million in tourist spending and $23 million in local incomes. In fact it's suggested that for every 1% drop in water levels, Lake Powell loses 5% of visitors (Owen 2008). As the Southwest dries, less and less visitors will come to the National Parks. This has major implications for the people living nearby as a loss of jobs in the tourism industry will no doubt trickle down to other sectors of the economy.

However, increasingly warm winters actually brings more visitors to the national parks (unless you want to go to a low-desert park) (CLIMAS 2011). The warmer winter temperatures actually encourage people to explore the parks. However, warming winter temperatures can negatively affect the ski industry as seen earlier in Part IV- Recreation, and therefore discourage people from coming to the mountains of the Southwest. In addition, increasing summer temperatures further discourages visitors from coming. So while there may be seasonal gains in the parks, overall the National Parks are losing visitors to the drying, heating climate.

The drying climate is a big factor in the prominence of forest fires in the Southwest (Freedman 2013). Although forest fire suppression management throughout the National Parks has also lead to an increased fire risk, a drier forest will burn more quickly! For more on fires catch up on PART V- DISASTER. National Parks and recreation face a big threat; if there's no water and no trees left, will people continue to come? Or will the way we play in the parks change with the changing landscape? Only time will tell!